Jeff over at Coding Horror says out of 200 job applications, only 199 will be able to program.
Joel states that if you get 200 people who apply for a job, 199 of them are the same people that have applied for every other job, but never get hired because they don't have the skills:
That means, in this horribly simplified universe, that the entire world could consist of 1,000,000 programmers, of whom the worst 199 keep applying for every job and never getting them, but the best 999,801 always get jobs as soon as they apply for one. So every time a job is listed the 199 losers apply, as usual, and one guy from the pool of 999,801 applies, and he gets the job, of course, because he's the best, and now, in this contrived example, every employer thinks they're getting the top 0.5% when they're actually getting the top 99.9801%.
A lot of it has to do with how the job offer is made. If you posted it on Craigslist, that may be an accurate reflection of the numbers. Probably the same is true for posting it through Job Service or in the local general newspaper. Would also have a lot to do with the unemployement numbers.
It would be interesting to post a fictional job offer on Craigslist in New York or LA and then offer an automated FizzBuzz Question (see the article) and see what kind of numbers you get. You would need to make sure your job offer was run of the mill. If your job offer was too phenomenal then you would dip into that pool of programmers that have jobs and aren't actively applying for new jobs. That is what Google and Microsoft are trying to do - hire the best of the best away from the rest.
I was actually working one place where they wanted to hire a developer and I helped write the job posting and find some good placements. I think we got about 30 responses to very specific job requirements. About 25 of them wanted the company to sponsor their H1B visa. A couple others wanted to telecommute. That is for a Boise Idaho posting too.
Off hand it seems like I have been offered every single software development job I have applied for where I actually got past the low level resume filters (i.e. the HR department that is looking for keywords). Most likely that was due to the simple fact that I have a provable skill and experience in software development. Of course I have never applied for a software development position with Google or the like. The only two reasons I would consider moving to California is if Google or CodeGear offered me a job - well, depending on the job.
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