Did you hear about Google Gears? It lets you use web based applications while you are offline. So you could use Gmail, Google Reader, and Google Apps. BTW, Gears is Open Source.
I noticed support for it in my Google Reader a while ago. I just read a news article about it. Firefox 3 has plans to support this as well. I read about it a while ago. They were waiting for some provider of web based applications to start supporting the idea, which now Google is doing.
The thing is, I don't see Microsoft supporting this kind of innovation since it competes with Office specifically, and Windows in general. That means no IE support for the latest web innovation. But with Microsoft's push for their Live products maybe they will support it. I guess we will see.
I still think we are within 5 years of seeing a very significant shift with Microsoft's position in the industry. The web and the web browser is becoming the platform Microsoft feared it would be. It is competing with the windows and office offering. Now with their move into patent litigation and Paul Graham's observations on their demise, I believe things have been set in motion. John Dvorak said they are going the way of the IBM years ago. He was especially vocal about it during the Lindows AKA Linspire fiasco.
6 comments:
Ummm, if it requires changes to the browser, it really an innovation?
So are you suggesting things like tabbed browsing, RSS, PNG, XHTML, Java, JavaScript, ActiveX, and flash (and clones like Silverlight) are not innovations? I am curious what your definition of innovation would be.
I think your right. MS is on their way down. I think they will still be a fairly big player but I don’t think they can maintain because their closed & controlling business model, at this point in time, is their worst enemy.
I think the one thing they could do to redeem themselves and save themselves from continuing to shrink their market is to make the best operating system on the planet.
You are correct that it is hard for any company to dominate for long periods of time. MS will decline, but will it be sudden or gradual?
"MS out in 5 years" - interesting theory but probably overly influenced by the appeal and novelty of the concept.
They still have the moxy and bucks to crush anyone they fear, and will for a long time.
Web apps still aren't ready to compete head-on with Windows apps: Ajax is harder to use than Win-based equivalents, and broad-band, while popular, is a long ways from being universal.
I didn't say Microsoft would be "out" in 5 years, and I would never suggest that even in 10 or 15 years. I just said we would see a significant shift. And we already have seen a few measurable shifts: Firefox has put a significant dent in IE market share and Google has put a huge dent in their industry mindshare.
"MS Out in 5 Years" - indeed you didn't say that!
I think I must have combined what you said with what one of your links said. On one of those links they have much stronger predictions about MS's downfall than you.
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